Bitcoin could hit $1 million by early 2027, study finds

A recent peer-reviewed study published in the Journal of Risk and Financial Management projects that Bitcoin could surpass $1 million by January 2027, driven by its fixed supply and increasing institutional and sovereign adoption.

Authored by Dr. Murray A. Rudd and Dennis Porter of Satoshi Action Education, the study utilizes a supply-and-demand equilibrium model, emphasizing Bitcoin’s immutable 21-million-coin cap and the growing trend of long-term holding, which reduces the liquid supply available for trading. The authors argue that even modest daily withdrawals from this liquid supply, especially by institutions and governments, could significantly impact Bitcoin’s price trajectory. 

The model incorporates data from the April 2024 halving event, when Bitcoin traded around $64,860, and applies a Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) demand function to forecast future prices . In a conservative scenario, where demand remains at December 2024 levels, Bitcoin could reach $1 million by late 2028. However, if demand accelerates, the $1 million milestone could be achieved as early as January 2027. 

Institutional adoption plays a crucial role in this projection. Companies like MicroStrategy have aggressively accumulated Bitcoin, setting a precedent for corporate treasuries. Additionally, at least 11 U.S. states are exploring initiatives to hold Bitcoin in strategic reserves, and countries such as El Salvador and Bhutan have already added Bitcoin to their national treasuries . 

The study also highlights the potential for Bitcoin to become a global reserve asset, akin to gold, especially if more states and governments adopt it as a store of value . This growing interest from both institutional investors and public-sector entities could further constrain the liquid supply, amplifying price sensitivity to demand surges. 

While the model presents a bullish outlook, the authors acknowledge potential risks, including regulatory changes, technological developments, and broader macroeconomic trends, which could influence Bitcoin’s price dynamics. Nonetheless, the study provides a compelling case for Bitcoin’s potential to reach $1 million within the next few years, contingent on continued adoption and strategic accumulation.